Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220630 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     69.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  13.7  14.5  15.8  10.4  12.1  17.2  18.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  19.0  22.0  27.0  12.0   8.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 124.6 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  38.0   0.0  10.0  24.0  53.0  14.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       14.1%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.9%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       20.2%       13.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       16.1%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        8.0%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%       16.6%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 AL022022 220630 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     69.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1  13.7  14.5  15.8  10.4  12.1  17.2  18.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%