Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.6  14.5  14.7   8.2  13.2  18.4  16.7  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  13.0   8.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3 109.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  14.0   6.0   0.0   6.0  75.0  59.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       16.7%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        7.3%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.1%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       24.3%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%       18.2%       15.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        9.1%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.6%       16.8%       12.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 AL022022 220630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.6  14.5  14.7   8.2  13.2  18.4  16.7  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%