Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  16.4  16.3  12.4  10.9  16.5  18.9  14.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  13.0  16.0  10.0   7.0   1.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6 109.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  37.0  41.0  83.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       15.7%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        6.6%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        6.4%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       20.6%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       14.1%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        6.1%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%       13.2%        9.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL022022 220630 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  16.4  16.3  12.4  10.9  16.5  18.9  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%