Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.8  11.5   9.7  12.5  16.6  13.8  17.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  12.0  16.0  14.0  11.0   4.0   1.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 109.4 115.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0   1.0  14.0  12.0  47.0  51.0  85.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       16.6%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        6.9%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        6.9%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        6.9%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       22.0%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%       14.5%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        6.3%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%       14.6%       10.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 AL022022 220630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     74.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.8  11.5   9.7  12.5  16.6  13.8  17.3  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%