Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  11.0   9.6   8.7  16.4  18.0  12.9  15.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  16.0  16.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   3.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 115.7 122.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  38.0  21.0  20.0   4.0  50.0  90.0 105.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       25.6%       15.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%       13.1%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       13.1%        7.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       13.1%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       27.8%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%       18.4%       14.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        8.3%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.9%       20.1%       14.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL022022 220701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     76.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  11.0   9.6   8.7  16.4  18.0  12.9  15.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%