Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     80.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9   9.8  13.6  17.6  17.4  13.3  18.6  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  10.0   7.0   1.0   2.0  10.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7 111.5 120.1 122.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  20.0  26.0   0.0  51.0  92.0 125.0  69.0  N  U  U  U  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        5.8%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.0%       35.6%       21.8%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       22.2%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       21.8%       12.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       21.8%       11.6%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       35.8%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.3%        9.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%       20.3%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%       12.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%       21.9%       14.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL022022 220701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     80.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.9   9.8  13.6  17.6  17.4  13.3  18.6  16.8  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%