Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022022 220702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.9  18.8  18.0  16.0  20.2  22.6  21.1  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  11.0  19.0  17.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 113.6 109.4 107.4 120.1 122.3 122.3 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  82.0  57.0  64.0  93.0  55.0  81.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        2.8%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        3.6%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 AL022022 220702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.9  18.8  18.0  16.0  20.2  22.6  21.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  78.0  75.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   9.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%