Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032022 220702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  21.9  30.4  28.9  26.5  37.1  36.0  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 109.4 107.4  98.0  81.5  78.6  66.7  53.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   6.0   4.0  13.0  31.0  43.0  65.0  96.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  60.0  43.0  39.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   7.0   5.0   3.0  15.0  13.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 AL032022 220702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00     79.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.