Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032022 220702 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 79.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.7 33.0 30.3 29.6 41.0 51.4 51.4 51.4 N U N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 103.5 91.0 74.4 63.2 65.5 65.5 65.5 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -19.0 -10.0 15.0 -6.0 -41.0 -41.0 -41.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 63.0 67.0 49.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 6.0 1.0 7.0 9.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 AL032022 220702 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.50 79.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.