Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     78.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  27.7  27.4  27.2  44.1  44.1  44.1  44.1  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5  96.2  77.2  73.0  66.7  66.7  66.7  66.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -21.0  -1.0  17.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  67.0  61.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.50

 AL032022 220702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80     78.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.