Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  27.4  28.9  44.2  50.4  50.4  50.4  50.4  N  N  N VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   0.0  12.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0  83.6  76.7  70.5  69.3  69.3  69.3  69.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0  -4.0  18.0  23.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  61.0  50.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   9.0  17.0   9.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 AL032022 220703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10     78.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.