Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032022 220703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  29.9  41.1  48.3  48.3  48.3  48.3  48.3  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0  17.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  79.2  76.7  80.4  80.4  80.4  80.4  80.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  11.0  33.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  58.0  48.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  16.0   1.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.38

 AL032022 220703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.