Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042022 220820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     94.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.6  22.0  25.6  31.7  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  69.0  40.0  23.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0 -43.0 -66.0 -14.0 -13.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  N VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       16.6%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        7.2%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.5%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        6.5%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       15.1%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        6.7%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%       10.0%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 AL042022 220820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30     94.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  22.6  22.0  25.6  31.7  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%