Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042022 220820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.0  26.2  31.3  24.9  24.9  24.9  24.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  36.0  22.0  13.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0  -9.0 -10.0  15.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   5.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.0%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        3.9%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 AL042022 220820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.0  26.2  31.3  24.9  24.9  24.9  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   5.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%