Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042022 220820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  25.6  28.9  28.7  20.2  20.2  20.2  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  25.0  13.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -16.0  16.0   4.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.6%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       15.0%        8.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        8.0%        5.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%       10.1%        5.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 AL042022 220820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  25.6  28.9  28.7  20.2  20.2  20.2  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%