Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220901 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 18.7 16.2 17.1 11.9 10.0 8.6 11.7 F N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 106.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 6.0 -14.0 -47.0 -6.0 26.0 -12.0 16.0 17.0 U U VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 58.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.6% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 9.9% 5.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 3.0% 3.9% 65kt / 72h 4.3% 7.4% 5.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.02 AL052022 220901 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.