Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.10     44.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  14.6  15.5  14.0  11.2   7.3   8.8  11.0  N  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 104.8 106.6 104.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -37.0   7.0  23.0  14.0  -5.0  -7.0  23.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  51.0  53.0  58.0 VU VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       12.7%        6.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%        8.0%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%        4.5%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%        9.6%        8.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.00

 AL052022 220901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.10     44.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.