Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220901 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 44.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 14.9 13.5 8.3 12.5 6.8 9.6 13.3 F F F VF F VF F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 11.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 84.8 84.8 84.8 86.6 84.8 86.6 83.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -6.0 25.0 22.0 36.0 -29.0 6.0 -30.0 VU U U U N VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 47.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 53.0 54.0 VU VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.0% 4.7% 7.4% 25kt / 24h 7.5% 14.0% 10.7% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 35kt / 24h 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 40kt / 24h 1.7% 7.4% 4.5% 45kt / 36h 7.2% 23.3% 15.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.0% 6.0% 55kt / 48h 12.4% 12.4% 12.4% 70kt / 48h 12.4% 7.1% 9.8% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 7.3% 5.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 AL052022 220901 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 44.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.