Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  13.9  10.3  14.9   9.4   6.5   7.9  14.8  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6  81.6  81.6  81.6  81.6  79.8  79.8  76.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   9.0  10.0   6.0 -10.0 -52.0   9.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  52.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.2%        7.4%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       17.8%       14.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.6%       10.6%       11.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.6%       10.6%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       10.6%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.7%       24.7%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.3%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        6.4%        4.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 AL052022 220902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.