Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  12.2  14.6  14.0   6.5   8.5  11.1  14.6  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   9.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.6  76.6  76.6  76.6  74.8  74.8  74.8  69.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  46.0   9.0  16.0 -41.0  31.0  27.0  24.0  U  N  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%        3.9%        6.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       10.4%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%        5.8%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%        5.8%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.8%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       11.5%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        2.8%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 AL052022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.