Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     43.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  16.4  12.4   9.1   6.9   7.7  13.4  16.9  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.6  71.6  71.6  71.6  69.8  68.0  66.2  62.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  12.0  28.0   6.0 -21.0  -1.0 -14.0  28.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  52.0  55.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        5.0%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       13.0%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        8.9%        7.9%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%        7.9%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        7.9%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       12.1%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        3.1%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 AL052022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     43.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.