Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220902 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.90 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 12.7 7.9 6.9 8.2 14.3 15.7 19.4 F F VF VF VF F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 6.0 5.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.6 71.6 69.8 69.8 69.8 68.0 66.2 61.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 41.0 -22.0 -24.0 32.0 32.0 25.0 38.0 U N VU VU N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 50.0 53.0 56.0 51.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.6% 3.6% 5.1% 25kt / 24h 6.2% 11.2% 8.7% 30kt / 24h 6.2% 6.9% 6.5% 35kt / 24h 6.2% 6.9% 6.5% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 6.9% 4.0% 45kt / 36h 6.3% 10.4% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.3% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 2.7% 3.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 AL052022 220902 18UTC Storm Located at : 37.90 43.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.