Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  10.6   8.9   6.7   8.2  14.5  12.7  22.3  F  F  F VF VF  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   8.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.6  71.6  71.6  69.8  71.6  69.8  66.2  62.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0 -12.0 -35.0   4.0  23.0  10.0  30.0  45.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  47.0  46.0  47.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  54.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        1.7%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        5.4%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        2.8%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        2.8%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        4.3%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        1.4%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 AL052022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.90     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.