Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.3   9.6   6.2   6.8   9.8  14.7  18.1  22.3 VF  F VF VF  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   8.0   9.0   8.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.6  76.6  76.6  74.8  74.8  71.2  69.4  64.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -21.0  -5.0  26.0  24.0  -5.0  39.0  -5.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  46.0  47.0  50.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  54.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.9%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        3.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        1.2%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 AL052022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.