Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         6.6   6.2   8.8  11.0  14.4  18.8  22.6  23.8 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   9.0  10.0  10.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.6  76.6  74.8  74.8  71.2  69.4  64.3  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  -1.0  36.0  24.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  50.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        3.4%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        9.3%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        5.6%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        5.5%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        6.6%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.5%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 AL052022 220903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.00     44.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.