Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220904 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 45.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 6.9 8.7 11.1 13.2 13.6 19.7 21.6 23.5 VF F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 11.0 11.0 9.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.6 71.6 69.8 69.8 64.4 62.7 56.1 41.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 30.0 29.0 9.0 22.0 40.0 26.0 18.0 U N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 55.0 51.0 50.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.8% 5.6% 7.7% 25kt / 24h 6.8% 12.0% 9.4% 30kt / 24h 6.8% 7.6% 7.2% 35kt / 24h 6.2% 7.6% 6.9% 40kt / 24h 2.0% 7.6% 4.8% 45kt / 36h 6.2% 7.9% 7.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 2.3% 1.5% 1.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 AL052022 220904 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.00 45.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.