Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.5 10.5 12.7 14.2 20.3 18.7 28.1 22.5 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.6 69.8 68.0 66.2 64.4 57.7 45.8 39.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 40.0 14.0 -6.0 44.0 9.0 2.0 -9.0 U N U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 -7.0 -6.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.5% 6.4% 8.0% 25kt / 24h 6.9% 13.0% 9.9% 30kt / 24h 6.9% 8.5% 7.7% 35kt / 24h 6.9% 8.5% 7.7% 40kt / 24h 1.5% 8.5% 5.0% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 8.3% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.5% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 AL052022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.