Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220904 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.6 12.5 15.0 14.6 21.5 24.9 20.0 20.2 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.8 64.8 61.2 59.4 56.0 45.0 36.7 28.2 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 -2.0 0.0 21.0 34.0 0.0 4.0 13.0 N U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 55.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 -3.0 -12.0 -10.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.7% 9.4% 10.6% 25kt / 24h 10.6% 16.5% 13.6% 30kt / 24h 10.6% 12.4% 11.5% 35kt / 24h 10.6% 12.4% 11.5% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 12.1% 7.0% 45kt / 36h 3.5% 8.4% 6.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 AL052022 220904 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.10 45.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.