Rapid Intensification Guidance AL052022 220904 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 12.0 13.8 18.8 21.4 23.8 19.0 27.5 F F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.8 56.2 54.4 52.7 46.1 33.0 26.7 18.8 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -12.0 33.0 42.0 15.0 20.0 16.0 30.0 U U N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -7.0 -10.0 1.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.8% 13.3% 17.0% 25kt / 24h 19.4% 18.0% 18.7% 30kt / 24h 19.4% 14.5% 16.9% 35kt / 24h 19.4% 14.5% 16.9% 40kt / 24h 3.4% 14.5% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 4.2% 8.2% 6.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 AL052022 220904 18UTC Storm Located at : 38.30 45.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.