Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.70     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  16.4  17.6  22.9  23.8  22.0  21.4  30.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.2  54.4  52.7  49.3  37.2  30.4  22.0  10.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   3.0  34.0   0.0  14.0  48.0  -7.0 -22.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -4.0  -5.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        4.4%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        5.3%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        3.2%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        3.2%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 AL052022 220905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.70     44.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.