Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  18.3  22.1  21.0  23.7  17.5  29.6  29.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  47.7  44.3  39.6  26.7  22.9  14.8   1.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  34.0  26.0  13.0   4.0  23.0  39.0   7.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0 -10.0  -8.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        3.5%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        4.0%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        2.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        2.2%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.52

 AL052022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.30     44.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.