Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  21.7  21.7  21.2  19.6  27.3  28.4  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.0  49.3  44.6  38.6  31.7  22.0  10.9  -2.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  25.0  -4.0   9.0   8.0  58.0 -14.0  27.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  55.0  51.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   1.0  -6.0   1.0   2.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.26

 AL052022 220905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     44.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.