Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.80     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  23.8  22.1  21.8  21.3  30.9  29.3  33.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  41.5  34.4  29.2  24.3  13.7   1.9 -10.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   5.0   7.0  10.0  39.0  40.0   1.0  65.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -2.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.82

 AL052022 220905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.80     43.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.