Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.40     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  23.5  23.8  21.1  26.7  30.2  34.3  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  39.4  34.2  32.9  20.7  10.8  -3.8 -11.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   0.0  36.0  24.0  42.0 -10.0  32.0  65.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  48.0  46.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  57.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -7.0  -9.0  -4.0  -9.0   8.0  17.0  18.0  N  F  F  F  F  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.50

 AL052022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.40     42.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.