Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.00     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  20.9  19.9  22.8  32.4  34.5  35.8  27.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.7  40.4  35.5  28.8  15.8   1.7  -7.3  -9.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  21.0  26.0  46.0 -11.0  46.0  21.0  35.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  59.0  64.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0   0.0  16.0  20.0  21.0  17.0  F  F  F  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.94

 AL052022 220906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.00     41.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.