Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.4  21.8  26.2  30.7  40.6  34.5  20.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.2  35.5  28.8  22.8   8.4  -4.1  -8.0  -6.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  31.0  50.0  52.0  21.0 148.0  24.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U VF  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  58.0  64.0  65.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0   0.0   2.0  12.0  14.0  29.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.52

 AL052022 220906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30     40.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.