Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.50     39.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.9  26.9  28.3  35.5  33.9  29.0  20.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.7  29.8  21.8  15.8   1.7  -7.3  -9.1  -5.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  75.0  28.0  -7.0  36.0  53.0  30.0  50.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  49.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  62.0  63.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0  15.0  13.0  13.0   9.0  -3.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.04

 AL052022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.50     39.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.