Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.00     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    160.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  26.7  28.4  29.5  34.9  31.6  20.1  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.8  17.8  10.8   2.7  -8.2 -16.3 -15.7  -3.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  47.0  -5.0 -17.0  92.0  20.0  35.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  F  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  50.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  66.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  13.0  16.0  19.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.36

 AL052022 220907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.00     38.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.