Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.30     37.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    162.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  28.3  30.7  32.9  28.5  21.9  24.8  46.4  N  N  U  U  N  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         18.7  11.6   4.7  -1.6 -13.0 -14.4 -10.8  -5.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   2.0 -25.0  34.0  44.0 -31.0 -32.0   7.0  N  U VU  N  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  56.0  62.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  20.0  20.0  22.0  17.0  18.0  13.0   1.0  N VU VU VU  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.70

 AL052022 220907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.30     37.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.