Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.40     35.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    164.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  31.5  33.3  32.1  24.4  13.5  36.9  49.1  U  U  U  U  N  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         11.6   4.7  -2.7  -9.5 -14.1 -13.0  -4.3   1.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  -3.0   6.0  40.0  32.0  54.0 -37.0  80.0  U  U  U  N  N  N VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  27.0  37.0  15.0   9.0   8.0   8.0  -8.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.66

 AL052022 220907 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.40     35.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.