Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052022 220908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.10     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.8  33.7  26.7  20.7  29.1  51.5  60.2  U  U  U  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          9.1   1.7  -4.1  -7.7  -8.7  -1.3   6.4   9.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  17.0  58.0  71.0 -31.0 -18.0 -44.0 -44.0  U  U  N  N VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  35.0  19.0  14.0  15.0   7.0  13.0  -9.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.62

 AL052022 220908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.10     33.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.