Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.7  23.0  26.8  25.6  25.9  25.7  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  40.0  40.0  45.0  53.0  56.0  52.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   6.0  33.0  31.0  18.0  20.0   4.0  47.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       14.2%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        5.3%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       14.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        7.6%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        4.1%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       15.7%       11.6%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL062022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.7  23.0  26.8  25.6  25.9  25.7  32.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%