Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.5  25.2  25.4  23.1  26.5  21.8  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  47.0  52.0  58.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  41.0  28.0  29.0   8.0  25.0  53.0  43.0  U  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.2%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       16.2%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        6.0%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.7%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        5.7%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       18.0%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        8.4%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        4.4%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h       24.0%       13.6%       18.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 AL062022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     60.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.5  25.2  25.4  23.1  26.5  21.8  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%