Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     61.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  26.0  26.2  26.4  24.8  20.5  24.5  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  50.0  55.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  50.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  34.0  29.0   3.0  19.0  27.0  71.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       10.3%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       10.8%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        6.7%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        2.7%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       11.4%       20.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 AL062022 220903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     61.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  26.0  26.2  26.4  24.8  20.5  24.5  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%