Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  28.4  29.1  23.9  29.7  24.3  34.5  30.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  52.0  38.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  34.0   7.0   9.0  15.0  49.0  51.0  46.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   5.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       21.6%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        9.7%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        9.1%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        9.1%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%       19.4%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.6%        9.6%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        4.5%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.9%        9.0%       12.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 AL062022 220903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  28.4  29.1  23.9  29.7  24.3  34.5  30.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   8.0   5.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%