Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.9  20.8  26.5  28.9  29.8  27.3  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  56.0  44.0  36.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   4.0   2.0  25.0  21.0  56.0  67.0  29.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        4.5%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.4%       25.6%       19.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       12.4%       11.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       12.4%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       12.4%        9.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.9%       19.7%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        8.4%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        4.0%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%        8.8%       11.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL062022 220904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.9  20.8  26.5  28.9  29.8  27.3  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%