Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  20.7  28.4  30.9  24.3  27.9  22.5  28.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  64.0  61.0  62.0  53.0  40.0  35.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   0.0  28.0  17.0  47.0  44.0  62.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.7%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       14.0%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        6.1%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        5.5%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        5.5%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       10.7%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        6.0%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.8%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       14.4%        5.9%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 AL062022 220904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     64.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  20.7  28.4  30.9  24.3  27.9  22.5  28.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  55.0  54.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%