Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     64.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  24.2  27.8  24.0  27.2  25.5  26.1  27.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  58.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  38.0  35.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  31.0  23.0  16.0  56.0  26.0  30.0  27.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        4.5%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       23.5%       15.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       12.5%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       11.7%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       11.7%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       18.5%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.3%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       10.3%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        3.2%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.2%        7.7%       10.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL062022 220904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50     64.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  24.2  27.8  24.0  27.2  25.5  26.1  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%