Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  27.1  26.5  25.3  32.9  26.6  34.4  22.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  40.0  35.0  48.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  -3.0   8.0  42.0  18.0  62.0   9.0  27.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.5%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       20.2%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       10.5%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        9.7%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        9.7%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       12.2%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        7.0%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        5.1%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL062022 220904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00     64.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  27.1  26.5  25.3  32.9  26.6  34.4  22.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%