Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL062022 220905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  26.5  25.1  30.5  29.7  27.2  29.8  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  36.0  38.0  51.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -1.0  36.0  50.0  29.0  22.0   3.0  12.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%       11.5%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.7%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        6.4%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        3.9%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        3.6%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL062022 220905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10     65.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  26.5  25.1  30.5  29.7  27.2  29.8  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%